Nick Markakis signs 6-year, $66 million extension

Background
25-year-old RF Nick Markakis signed a 6 year, 66 million dollar contract; the Orioles buy out three years of free agency.

Stats

Year	Tm	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2008	BAL	157	595	106	182	48	1	20	87	10	99	113	.306	.406	.491	134
3 Yr		465	1723	275	516	116	6	59	261	30	203	297	.299	.375	.476	121

GG's Take
An absolute steal for the Orioles. Markakis could have gone year-to-year, made reasonable money in arbitration, and sign an 8-year/160 million deal with the Yankees in the winter of 2011. I’m not sure why he didn’t go that route, but hey, I’m not complaining. To lock in Markakis for three prime years at below market rates is a fantastic investment; it is certain he will be worth far more than his 11 million annual salary from ages 28-31. Currently only Ichiro Suzuki is his equal among American League right fielders, by 2010 he will stand alone. Unless everyone is way off on the potential of Matt Wieters’ bat, and with Brian Roberts locked into the leadoff spot, he will also have the lineup protection he needs to flourish.

Speaking of Roberts: to properly assess the Markakis move, it needs to be evaluated in the context of the Brian Roberts extension. By locking up Markakis and Roberts, the Orioles now have their core players, a group that includes Adam Jones, Wieters, and hopefully some combination of Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta, under team control for at least the next five years. The Orioles have attempted this sort of consolidation in the past. Under the Jim Beattie/Mike Flanagan regime the team signed its core players (Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard, Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, Brian Roberts, Jay Gibbons) through 2009, thinking they would surely be competitive by now. Well, that didn’t quite work out, but it was the right idea, and the idea is equally good now. It’s not enough to acquire new farm talent each year if the older talent is filtering out at an equal rate - the key players must be allowed to stay together and gel. Especially with the Orioles in poor position to attract free agents, it was vital to lock in Markakis before he hit the open market, and they did.

Catching up: Daniel Cabrera Non-tendered

Background
The Orioles non-tendered SP Daniel Cabrera, 28, rather than offer him $3-4 million in arbitration.

Stats

Year	Tm	G	W	L	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
2008	BAL	30	8	10	0	180	199	109	105	24	90	95	5.25	1.60
5 Yr		147	48	59	1	841.3	825	501	472	88	478	651	5.05	1.55

GG's Take
Ever since he was plucked prematurely from AA Bowie at age 23 and surprisingly held his own in 2004, great things have been expected of Cabrera. The hulking body and the right arm throwing mid-90s heat always seemed on the cusp of stardom. A little more guidance, a little more composure would lead to great achievements. He would teeter on the edges of mediocrity, then hurl a brilliant game against the Red Sox or Yankees to tantalize the Orioles, reminding them of what he could do when everything clicked. But his numbers got worse instead of better over the years, and in 2006-2007 his always poor control regressed to where he led the AL in walks. 2008 was more of the same, and this time, Cabrera suffered not only wildness but also a dropoff in his strikeout rate. In light of this you won't be surprised to learn that his fastball velocity diminished (95 to 92 MPH - 1.8%, the fifth-largest drop in baseball between 2007-2008). This, along with the spectre of a big payday looming and fielding skills that were among the worst in the league, left Cabrera with too many strikes against him to remain an Oriole.

Was it the right move? Given the way the free agent market crumbled after the New Year, it appears the O’s were shrewd to avoid arbitration and send Cabrera on his way (as was Cabrera in signing elsewhere immediately). He signed a $2.5 million deal with the Nationals, one of the few teams with rotation problems no less severe than those of the Orioles. It seems clear that Cabrera is never going to harness his control woes, and with his upside relative to cost gone, he was no better than the quorum the Orioles currently have vying for their last two rotation spots. Unless someone whispers something in his ear that causes him to throw strikes with a consistency that a succession of Oriole pitching coaches could not achieve, this will likely be the last year he comes into a major league camp with a rotation slot secured.

Of macabre interest for ex-O's watchers will be Cabrera’s attempts to bat in the National League – he is 0-14 with 14 K’s lifetime as a hitter.

Ty Wigginton

Background
Houston’s starting 3B last year, Ty Wigginton was non-tendered by the Astros. He signs with the Orioles for 2 years, $6 million. Wigginton is 31 years old and has played 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and DH in the majors for the Mets, Pirates, Rays, and Astros.

Stats

Year	Tm	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2008	HOU	111	386	50	110	22	1	23	58	4	32	69	.285	.350	.526	128
7 Yr		784	2715	350	734	163	11	110	384	32	218	534	.270	.330	.460	105

GG's Take
Early in his career, Wigginton looked like a four-corners utility player with some pop, an Eric Hinske clone without a job. With poor defense and questionable offense versus right-handing pitching, the Pirates released him in 2005. Unwanted, he washed up in Tampa Bay the following year and put up an 828 OPS, reestablishing himself as a viable weapon. In Houston, he continued to rake left handed pitching while showing barely passable defensive skills, thereby redefining himself upwards as a borderline starter for poor teams from 2006-8. In December, however, despite the lack of a reasonable replacement, the Astros chose to non-tender him rather than risk paying him 5-6 million in arbitration, a move that raised eyebrows but now appears prescient. While he was rumored to have several suitors, it seems clear that the promise of a second year is what brought him to Baltimore; certainly it’s not the team’s W-L record or openings at the corners that don’t appear, at first glance, to exist.

What Wigginton will get is a chance to mash lefties and in all likelihood a bit more, as Melvin Mora is unlikely to hold up at age 36 to the demands of a full season, and both Aubrey Huff and Luke Scott are possible trade bait. And while the second year in a deal like Wigginton’s is usually more a case of the team conceding to land a player who really only warrants a one-year deal, there’s actual value in having Wigginton on board to cover for impending FAs Huff and Mora at the corners in 2010. If I were Wigginton I’d seek out a one-year deal from the Giants, Twins, or even the Astros where I could be the featured guy, but in this economy, you can’t blame a guy for seeking maximum cash.

How does this affect the roster? Most likely, we’ve ensured that Nolan Reimold heads to Norfolk, which was already his likely destination. Beyond that, this move would appear to put the squeeze on Chris Gomez, but he’s our only legitimate SS behind Itzuris. Will we go North carrying Wigginton, Freel, Gomez, and a backup catcher on our bench? Depends on how many pitchers we carry and a million other factors.

ND's Take
If the Orioles can limit Wigginton to a strict platoon in which he only faces lefties, this has the potential to be a nice signing. If he becomes an everyday player, it's still not a terrible move for the money, but it's not going to add too much positive to the team's W-L record.

My concern with Wigginton is primarily that he's now 31, he's coming off a career year, and most of all, that career year was primarily the result of playing at Minute Maid Park. Check out these splits from last season:

Place	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	Split OPS+
Home	52	181	31	62	16	1	15	35	2	9	31	.343	.390	.691	176
Away	59	205	19	48	6	0	8	23	2	23	38	.234	.316	.380	105

In other words, Wigginton was 76% better than the average player playing at home, but 9% below average for players playing on the road. And that is AFTER adjusting for the fact that Minute Maid was a hitter's park!

How will that translate to OPACY, which is usually about average (or below average) as a hitter's park? Hard to say, but it doesn't bode well.

Trade for Rich Hill

Background
An above-average starter in 2006-7, Rich Hill fell out of favor with Cubs manager Lou Pinella last year, was demoted to AAA Iowa, then struggled mightily with his control in the minors and even into the winter league. Out of options and crowded out of the Cubs' deep rotation, he was available on the cheap. The Orioles acquire him for a PTBNL, the quality of which will depend on Hill’s performance. Hill is a 6'5" lefty who turns 29 in March.

Stats

Year	Tm	G	W	L	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
2008	CHC	5	1	0	0	19.7	13	9	9	2	18	15	4.12	1.57
4 Yr		276	18	17	0	333.7	291	173	164	48	137	309	4.37	1.27

GG's Take
Like a federal witness forced to relocate, to start his baseball life anew Rich Hill was deposited with a team in the other league with ample rotation spots open and no chance of haunting the Cubs in a World Series matchup. But it can be argued that if Hill can turn his career around, Baltimore is the place. He is reunited with pitching coach Rick Kranitz, who once helped Hill overcome control problems in the minors. He is in a low-pressure environment with a premier defense to track down the many fly balls (his GB% is in the 30-40% range, which is very low) that Hill typically allows. But let’s not overstate the odds of success. As recently as December in the Venezuelan Winter League, Hill was fooling no one. Early reports from spring training claim his signature curveball is biting but the odds of his returning to relevance are low – PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus' forecasting system, pegs his chances of reaching the performance level of his last three years (even including last year's failures) at 21%, to be precise.

ND's Take
Wow, I must suddenly be the voice of optimism around here, because this is the best move the O's made all offseason. It's better than Pie, it's better than sending away Hernandez, it's better than jettisoning Cabrera. OK, maybe it's not as good as signing Markakis and Roberts long-term, but those are internal moves that don't count.

Rich Hill wasn't just above average in 2007. He was one of the top pitchers in the NL that year. He was 5th in the league in strikeouts, 8th in WHIP, and in the top 15 in ERA+. His minor league stats are even more overwhelmingly positive. In 165 IP in AAA (spanning two seasons) before he got called up in 2006, he had 227 Ks to go along with a 2.51 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. Even last season wasn't as bad as everyone makes it out to be. He still had a 4.12 ERA, which was 8% better than league average! Yes, his WHIP was up because of his control problems, but he was still unhittable, giving up only 13 hits in 19+ innings.

Add to that that he's reunited with his AA manager (Dunn, who is now the O's bullpen coach) and AAA pitching coach (Kranitz, who is now the O's pitching coach), and all the pieces are there to get him back on track.

Look, it's possible that Hill is the latest victim of Steve Blass Disease, in which a pitcher mysteriously loses the ability to throw strikes. It's also quite possible that Hill was hurt last year. He claims to have had a bad back, which altered his release and threw off his whole pitching motion. If that's true, we just got ourselves a #2 starter for nothing.

This is EXACTLY the type of move the O's need to be making if they ever want to contend in the AL East. Our money is still Confederate to the big name FAs. There is only so much success any farm system can have, and there are always bound to be holes and unexpected failures. When an opportunity like this comes along, you have to jump on it, and I give Andy MacPhail a ton of credit for making this move.

Best of all, if Hill ends up walking guys around the bases, we still lost nothing by it. The PTBNL will be a nobody, and whatever innings Hill throws would likely have been nearly as bad had they been thrown instead by Hendrickson or Liz or Bass.

Catching Up: The Hernandez Trade

Background

The Orioles traded C Ramon Hernandez to the Cincinnati Reds for IF/OF Ryan Freel and minor leaguers Brandon Waring and Justin Turner. Freel is a speedy righthanded bat, who will turn 33 in March. Waring is a 23-year old righthanded 3B, who played in the low-A Midwest League last year. Turner is a 24-year old righthanded 2B, who played AA ball last year.

Stats

Hernandez

Year	Tm	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2008	BAL	133	463	49	119	22	1	15	65	0	32	62	.257	.308	.406	86
10 Yr		1188	3975	477	1044	206	6	137	602	7	333	571	.263	.326	.421	96

Freel

Year	Tm	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2008	CIN	48	131	17	39	8	0	0	10	6	8	18	.298	.340	.359	82
7 Yr		553	1895	295	515	98	17	22	117	142	211	327	.272	.357	.376	91

Waring (minor league stats)

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
2 Yr	188	709	126	203	40	4	40	134	2	64	239	.286	.355	.523

Turner (minor league stats)

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
3 Yr	294	1133	193	351	63	9	24	153	29	108	185	.310	.377	.445

GG's Take
Everyone knew Ramon was out the door, and not just because of Wieters' enormous shadow. His play was lackadaisical at times, the bat came and went, and the defense just went. He may be motivated in a contract year to run out every grounder, and the friendly hitting environment of Great American Ballpark will help, but as an Oriole, he was good as gone.

Ryan Freel has always been intriguing in small doses, and small doses are all you get with him, since he's been injured in nearly each of his 6 years in the bigs. When healthy, he plays hard, steals bases, and gets on base (.357 career OBP). He's also a righty, and it's not hard to picture him complementing Felix Pie in LF. He's a free agent at the end of this year, and may not figure into the O's long-term plans, but for 2009 at least, he'll be the antithesis of Hernandez effort-wise.

The B-level prospects the O's received in this return are somewhat interesting. Justin Turner has limited upside but stands a chance of manning 2B one day. He is the key player in this deal. Brandon Waring is in the Scott Moore/Mike Costanzo mold - intriguing power, not enough contact or defensive skills to stick. A point in favor of these guys - new assistant GM Wayne Krivsky knows the Reds system intimately from his days as their GM, so if he sees something in these guys, he's got the credentials to earn my trust. His Reds career was checkered, but one thing he did exceptionally well was find nearly free talent - Arroyo, Harang, and Phillips were all acquired on his watch for little or no cost.

ND's Take
I tend to hold Freel in higher regard than most. I love his energy, I love that he gets on base, and I love his basestealing ability. To me, he's the quintessential backup. He's a decent fielder both in the outfield and in the infield. If he can show any talent as a SS in Spring Training, I can see him being a frequent replacement for Izturis. If he can just stay healthy, which, admittedly, is a big if, he's going to be a nice addition to the team, even if it's only for this season.

As for the minor leaguers, I'm not expecting a lot. Turner is a nice player, but he's blocked by Brian Roberts (who appears about to sign for 4 years after this one). If he plays well enough at AAA, he could be dealt elsewhere; if not, he's an insurance policy. Waring is an all-or-nothing guy, as evidenced by his 45 XBH versus only 18 singles (and 156 Ks) last season at low A ball. He's also old for his level, so I don't expect to ever see him in an O's uniform.

The key to this deal is, of course, Matt Wieters. There was just no point in keeping Hernandez's salary on the books, and there was no way I'd want to risk that his attitude would rub off on Wieters at all. Hernandez gave us one very good season and two poor seasons. He served his purpose, but his time was up. Bring on the kid.